TAGS: STOCK MARKET, SENSEX, NIFTY, TECHNICAL CHARTS, BEARISH BELT HOLD
The domestic stock market slipped on Wednesday, with the benchmark Sensex falling over 113 points on speculation that the European Central Bank would eventually wind up its bond-buying programme.
The 30-pack index closed at 28,220, down 0.40 per cent from its previous close. On similar lines, the broader Nifty50 index of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) closed at 8,743, down 25.20 points from its previous close.
Here is how different analysts viewed the market proceedings.
Shreyash Devalkar, Fund Manager for Equities, BNP Paribas Mutual Fund
Key benchmark indices in India traded in negative territory today as a slew of conflicting new flows kept investors on their toes.
Overseas stock markets traded lower as investors digested data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and remarks from a Federal Reserve official who said that the central bank should pre-emptively raise short-term interest rates to stave off accelerating inflation.
However, while the IMF said that global economic growth is likely to remained subdued this year following a slowdown in the United States and Britain's vote to leave the European Union, it has marginally raised India’s growth forecast to 7.6% in 2016-17 from its earlier projection of 7.4%, citing the resilience of its economy and robust growth momentum.
Sectoral performance on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) was mixed with the metals, media and auto indices trading in the green while the banking, IT and healthcare indices languished in negative territory.
Mustafa Nadeem, CEO, Epic Research
Nifty made a Bearish Belt hold pattern which indicates a reversal on the chart. A bearish belt hold is formed when open and high is same and closing is just near the day’s low.
The body of candle is usually long which indicates an enough selling pressure in the near term. A bearish belt hold indicates a change in the sentiment from bullish to bearish and that too at a crucial resistance of 8,840 on the higher side.
In terms of price Nifty closed below crucial level of 8,790 which happens to be 38.2% retracement of previous leg of rally from 8,540 to 8,968. Now in near term prices may find support at 8,740 which if taken out on closing basis will augur well for bears to downward move towards 8,650 - 8,500.
On the higher side, the resistance is at 8,810 - 8,840 which if breached on closing basis , a change, may occur in trend. OI data suggest heavy build up in 8,500 PE and 8,600 PE while writing is seen in 8,700 - 8,800 CE. a change in OI data is seen as shift in trading range which now comes to 8,800 to 8,600 in near term.
Abnish Kumar Sudhanshu, Director & Research Head, Amrapali Aadya Trading
The market failed to hold morning gains as selling pressure emerge on higher levels. Post rate cut nifty attempt twice to move above 20DMA but failed to hold the gains, this signals short term weakness prevails despite of positive policy input and investors are looking at exiting at higher level.
On the technical charts, the Nifty50 has formed a large bear candle on Wednesday closing, formation of large bear candle after three days of consecutive Bull Run indicates traders are liquidating longs and trend reversal is awaited.
Short-term trend of the market is now changing to sell on rally as market continues to make lower lows and lower highs at trend reversal level. Nifty trading range is placed at 8,680 – 8,850 level.